Chiefs vs. Bills: Playoff Race Heats Up as Mahomes and Allen Clash in Final Stretch
Nov, 29 2025
The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills are locked in a do-or-die playoff battle, with just five weeks left in the 2025 NFL season. At 6-6, the Chiefs sit just outside the AFC’s wild card cutoff, while the 7-4 Bills cling to the final spot — but neither team can afford another slip-up. Their Week 9 showdown, which the Bills won 27-24, didn’t just change the standings; it reshaped the entire postseason landscape. Chiefs vs. Bills isn’t just a rivalry anymore — it’s a playoff gauntlet.
Why This Game Still Matters
That Week 9 win by Buffalo didn’t just move them up a few spots. According to A-to-Z Sports’ analysis from November 9, 2025, a Bills victory boosted their playoff probability from 87% to 95%. Meanwhile, Kansas City’s chances plummeted from 89% to 58%. That single game turned what looked like a formality into a fight for survival. The Chiefs, who’ve made the AFC Championship in all seven seasons with Patrick Lavon Mahomes II as starter, are now staring at their first miss since 2017. For the Bills, it’s déjà vu: they’ve beaten Kansas City in five straight regular-season games, yet lost the last four playoff meetings — including last year’s 32-29 AFC Championship heartbreaker, where Harrison Lee Butker kicked the go-ahead field goal with 3:33 left and Josh Allen threw incomplete on fourth-and-5.
The Positional Battle: Who Has the Edge?
CBS Sports’ November 29, 2025, breakdown paints a clear picture: the Chiefs lead in five of eight key positional categories — quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end, and defensive line. Patrick Mahomes II remains the engine, but it’s the defense that’s carrying them now. With the NFL’s second-best scoring defense (16.4 points per game), the Chiefs have tightened up dramatically this season. Their secret weapon? Christopher D. Jones, the All-Pro defensive tackle who’s racked up 42 sacks and 318 quarterback pressures over the last five seasons — the most by any DT in that span.
But Buffalo’s counterpunch? Their offensive line. The Bills lead the league in rushing (164.4 yards per game) and rank second in yards per carry (5.2). That’s not luck — it’s execution. Their pass protection isn’t elite (33.1% pressure rate, fifth-worst in the NFL), but they don’t need it. They run the ball so well, defenses can’t focus on Mahomes. The problem? They lost their starting defensive tackle, Ed Oliver, to a torn biceps on November 24, 2025. That’s a massive blow against a Chiefs offense that thrives on quick passes and screen plays.
The Schedule: A Minefield for Both Teams
The Bills’ path to the playoffs is brutal. Their final five games include road trips to Pittsburgh Steelers, New England Patriots, and Cleveland Browns, plus home games against the Bengals, Eagles, and Jets. The Patriots and Steelers? Both are playoff contenders with ferocious home crowds. Lose one of those, and Buffalo’s season could unravel.
The Chiefs aren’t off the hook. They’ve already lost to the sixth-seeded Jaguars and seventh-seeded Bills — two teams they’re now chasing. NFL.com’s Dan Hanzus put it bluntly: “With prior losses to the sixth-seeded Jacksonville Jaguars and seventh-seeded Bills working against them, the Chiefs simply cannot afford any stumbles.” Their remaining schedule includes the Raiders, Chargers, Broncos, and a critical Week 17 rematch with the Bills. And here’s the twist: they’re 1.5-point favorites on the road — the first time since 2020 they’ve been favored in Buffalo.
The Stakes: Legacy vs. Redemption
For Mahomes, this isn’t just about making the playoffs. It’s about legacy. He’s never missed the AFC Championship. He’s never lost a divisional round. And he’s never failed to reach the Super Bowl when he did. A 2025 miss would be his first blemish in seven years. For Allen, it’s about breaking the cycle. He’s won the regular season battles. He’s outplayed Mahomes in the regular season. But every time the lights get brightest, the Chiefs find a way. That’s why the Bills’ 5-0 regular season streak against Kansas City feels hollow — it’s the postseason that defines champions.
And yet, something’s different this year. The Chiefs’ point differential through 10 weeks? +7.3 per game — better than any of their past four seasons. They’re not just surviving. They’re clicking. Meanwhile, Buffalo’s offense has sputtered in losses to the Patriots, Falcons, Dolphins, and even a Texans team with a backup QB. Their defense is inconsistent. Their special teams — once their strength — have been shaky. The Bills aren’t just fighting for a playoff spot. They’re fighting to prove they’re more than just a regular-season team.
What’s Next?
The final five weeks are a gauntlet. The Chiefs need to win at least four of their remaining games, including a must-win against Buffalo in Week 17. The Bills need to win three of their last five, with two of those on the road against elite defenses. The winner of their December 29 showdown could very well be the last team standing in the AFC wild card race.
Historical Context: A Rivalry Defined by Heartbreak
This isn’t just another rivalry. It’s a psychological war. Since 2017, the Chiefs have won 10 of 12 meetings. But the Bills have won five straight regular-season games — the longest streak in franchise history against Kansas City. Yet in the playoffs? The Chiefs have won four of the last five. The Bills have lost their last three postseason games to the Chiefs by a combined 14 points. That’s not bad luck. That’s dominance under pressure.
And here’s the quiet truth: the Bills’ 2025 season has been defined by missed opportunities. They lost to the Patriots by 14 at home. They blew a 17-point lead against the Falcons. They lost to Miami by 10 despite holding a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter. They even lost to Houston — a team without its starting QB. The Bills aren’t just losing to the Chiefs. They’re losing to themselves.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can the Chiefs still make the playoffs with a 6-6 record?
Yes — but they need to win at least four of their final five games. NFL.com’s playoff model gives them a 28% chance as of November 27, 2025. Their path requires wins over the Raiders, Chargers, and Bills, plus at least one upset against a division rival. Their improved defense and Mahomes’ late-game magic make it plausible, but they can’t afford another loss to a team below them in the standings.
Why have the Bills lost so many close games this season?
Buffalo’s offense has struggled to close out games, particularly in the fourth quarter. They’ve blown leads of 10+ points in four losses this season, including to the Patriots and Falcons. Their defense has allowed 27+ points in three of their four defeats. Josh Allen has thrown three game-ending interceptions in the final two minutes this year — a troubling trend that’s haunted them in past playoff losses to Kansas City.
How has Ed Oliver’s injury impacted the Bills’ defense?
Oliver’s torn biceps, suffered on November 24, 2025, leaves a massive void. He led the Bills with 8.5 sacks and 17 quarterback pressures this season. His absence weakens their run defense, which was already struggling against mobile QBs. The Chiefs’ offensive line is strong, but Mahomes thrives when interior pressure collapses. Without Oliver, Kansas City’s run-pass options become far more dangerous.
Is this the end of the Bills’ playoff window?
Not necessarily — but it’s a turning point. Allen is 28 and still in his prime. The Bills have elite talent on offense. But if they lose to the Chiefs again in a high-stakes game, it’ll reinforce the narrative that they can’t win when it matters most. Their window is still open, but it’s narrowing. A 2025 playoff miss would be their third in four years — and could trigger major roster changes.
What’s the significance of Mahomes never missing the AFC Championship?
It’s a mark of sustained excellence. Mahomes has reached the AFC Championship every year since 2018 — tying Peyton Manning for the most consecutive appearances by a QB in NFL history. If he misses it in 2025, it ends a 7-year streak and raises questions about whether the Chiefs’ dynasty is fading. For fans, it’s not just about a loss — it’s about the end of an era.
Who’s the favorite in the final Chiefs-Bills matchup?
The Chiefs are 1.5-point road favorites, per FanDuel, despite being 6-6. That’s because they’ve outperformed their record — winning by 7.3 points per game on average. The Bills are 7-4, but their wins have been fluky. Mahomes thrives in pressure situations, and the Chiefs’ defense has improved dramatically since October. This game will likely be decided by one play — and Mahomes has made more of them than Allen in the playoffs.